Good News/Bad News

First, the good news—the U.S. added 103,000 jobs in September, which is definitely an improvement over the stagnant dog days of summer (with zero jobs added in August). According to www.washingtonpost.com, even these relatively few new jobs “were enough to calm fears of a new recession that have hung over Wall Street and the nation for weeks.”

The not-so-good-news (I loathe using the word “bad”) – the unemployment rate stayed at 9.1%. Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets, opined that the numbers show that the economy is not gaining much momentum. After some really down weeks, the Dow Jones, as of this posting is up, as is the bond market.

During the first half of 2011, the U.S. economy grew at the slowest pace since the recession ended in June 2009 (has it really ended?) Since then, the European debt crisis and stock market declines have amplified fears that the economy will continue its sluggish ways.Although this slight uptick in employment is encouraging to many economists, your average American (if there is such a person) is not feeling a great deal of elation. The jobless rate has been mired as if at the LaBrea Tar Pits; the economy must add about 125,000 jobs each month to bring down the unemployment tally.

Even the Obama White House concedes that unemployment will probably remain pretty much where it is though 2012; that would be the highest rate that any sitting president has faced when seeking reelection since WWII. Not one to face this bleak scenario alone, President Obama “has challenged Congress to get behind his $447 billion jobs bill or risk being run out of Washington”. [This has not occurred, to date].

Some economic reports show that there some signs of increased business activity; temporary help added about 20,000 new jobs and the average workweek became slightly longer. The construction trades, retail and health care saw the biggest percentage of new jobs. Wages have also seen a bit of a raise. Manufacturing jobs, however, are down. This could be the road to more consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of the economy. “When people spend more money, it generates demand for businesses, which hire more workers.” This is the vicious circle for which we all have been waiting. Is it coming, who can know for sure?

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